While I realize most of us probably have better things to do then think about the potential US strike on Syria, I think if people realized what kind of mess it could spiral into might make them feel differently. While I seriously doubt that a strike on Syria would plunge us into World War III, that is the feeling a lot of people had when a certain duke was assassinated and the first World War started. In fact if you look at the global situation during that period and compare it to what is going on now, there are a lot of similarities. I know it's a stretch, but remember, people believed the world going to war not once, but twice was a stretch as well.
How do You See World War III in this Mess?
If you look at World War I as an example then seeing what could happen with the current situation is easier to understand. First, just like with World War I there are a series of alliances that span all over the world. The US, Europe, Australia, and a few other nations are all bound by treaty to come to the defense of one another. Russia has several alliances with neighboring countries including Iran. Iran has an ally in Russia and is on fairly friendly terms with China. China for its part is friendly with Iran, but has a treaty with Pakistan. India is a bit of a loner but is in constant skirmishes with both Pakistan and China over the Kashmir region. While this isn't even close to the full picture it should give you an idea of just how tangled everything is.
World War I was not started by the aggression of a country against the other, it was started because of a single assassination which set off a chain reaction of events that caused the first world war. Just like back then, we are looking at a similar single incident setting off a chain of reactions that could plunge the world into war. Right now the United States is considering performing a military strike against Syria. While this on the surface may not seem like a big deal, it is actually a huge deal.
Currently both Russia and Iran have stated they will retaliate against the US if the US conducts a strike against Syria. In fact, Russia has actually moved some of their warships into the Mediterranean sea and this should scare the hell out of us. Now, if the US makes a strike and Russia retaliates, this triggers off a series of treaties. First, while the US may not have Britain's support on striking Syria, they are bound by treaty to respond if we are attacked by an enemy. Not only is Britain compelled to come to our defense, but so is every member of NATO as well as Australia.
Along with Russia retaliating, Iran has threatened retaliation. If they chose to make a military move of aggression against the US then Israel would be more than happy to jump to our defense and most likely other countries in the Middle East would pick a side on that conflict and plunge the entire region into war. While this is all a mess we still aren't close to done yet. IF Iran attacks the US, the US and it's allies would retaliate pretty heavily and then China is most likely going to get involved. If China comes into the war then that probably means Pakistan and India go at each other too.
Admittedly this is quite unlikely to happen given that neither Russia nor Iran have anything remotely close to the capability of our military. However, while it is unlikely world war three would start, what is likely is for Russia, Iran, and other's to retaliate against the US and our allies in unconventional ways. If these unconventional attacks become dangerous enough, eventually the US will have to enter into war against Iran and again we could wind up in a very messy place.
Just something to think about.
No comments:
Post a Comment